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Some Bush Aides Wary of Autonomy for Iraq Regions
Reuters
By Adam Entous
April 16, 2003

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Some Bush administration officials are concerned about Kurdish, Shi'ite and Sunni regions having a great deal of autonomy as part of a postwar Iraqi government, people familiar with the deliberations said on Wednesday.

President Bush hailed advocates of Kurdish autonomy visiting the White House last month, saying he envisioned replacing Saddam Hussein's government with a "federation" made up of the country's major ethnic groups.

Saman Shali, executive vice president of the Kurdish National Congress of North America, said he had received assurances the Kurds would have the "autonomy to run their own affairs" after the war.

"Please do not sell out the Kurds again," Shali implored White House national security adviser Condoleezza Rice at the end of the visit. "We will not, I promise," Rice said in response, according to Shali's account.

In subsequent meetings with lawmakers, administration officials raised the possibility of a federation of states drawn along ethnic lines, congressional sources said.

Officials say they have not committed to a federation or any other structure for a future Iraqi government.

"We're going to leave those decisions to the Iraqi people where they belong," one official said, putting the onus on yet-to-be-named Iraqi leaders to draft a constitution with the help of American and other outside advisers.

But some Bush administration officials see "potential pitfalls," including a heightened risk of power struggles, in a federal system that grants autonomy to regions based on ethnicity, sources close to the deliberations said.

Iraqi Kurds want to retain at least the autonomy they now have as the price for remaining part of a federated Iraq and as a reward for helping American forces fighting in the north.

"In the end, some kind of federated system -- with local governments that takes into account regional differences in the population -- may work," said a source. "But when you have a country as ethnically diverse, with certain ethnicities concentrated in certain areas, you have the potential for ethnic conflict."

POTENTIAL PITFALLS
U.S. policy-makers hope to avoid the fate of Afghanistan, where lawless regions dominated by warlords pose a real threat to future stability.

The fear in Iraq, officials say, is that semi-autonomous regions could work at cross-purposes, undermining centralized authority in a nation with a history of divisions between Kurds and Arabs, Sunni Muslims and Shi'ite Muslims.

Regions might vie for independence, undercutting a central principle of U.S. policy: maintaining Iraq's territorial integrity.

A federation could also give undue weight to regional powers, which are in some cases hostile to the United States. Saudi Arabia might shape policies in a semi-autonomous Sunni region, while Iran could influence Iraq's Shi'ite majority.

The politics of setting up a semi-autonomous Kurdish region within Iraq could be especially difficult.  Turkish leaders are uncomfortable with the degree of autonomy the Iraqi Kurds have gained since Saddam lost control of a slice of northern Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War. But for the Kurds, that autonomy is the baseline from which they expect to improve their lot in a post-Saddam Iraq.

The capture of the northern oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul underscored the danger. When Kurdish fighters swept in, they triggered an immediate threat of Turkish military intervention. American troops were sent to the city to ensure Turkey stayed on the sidelines.

Kurds, who had a majority in Kirkuk and a share of its oil wealth before Baath party ethnic cleansing "Arabized" the city, want Kirkuk as their capital. "We have to strengthen what we have, not weaken it," said Shali.

Mike Amitay, executive director of the Washington Kurdish Institute, warned of a public outcry and "maybe violence" if the Kurds' autonomy is rolled
back. "The genie is already out of the bottle," he said.