Selected Articles

Explosive ingredients: Turkey has its own agenda in Iraq
February 13, 2003
The Guardian

US plans to invade Iraq via Turkey, a key part of George Bush's war strategy, look increasingly likely to trigger a conflagration in Kurdish areas potentially involving Turkish, American, Kurdish, Iraqi and even Iranian forces. Turkey, which already maintains troops in northern Iraq, is moving heavy armour and reinforcements to its south-eastern border.

Ankara says its aim is to protect ethnic Turkmens and stem a 1991-type refugee exodus. But it makes no secret of its intention to seize a large swath of Iraqi territory once war begins. Preventing Kurdish control of the oil centres of Mosul and Kirkuk is one objective. Another is discouraging any Kurdish bid for statehood.

Ankara's insistence on having a free hand in Iraq and its refusal to place its forces under US command, are among several conditions placed on the urgent US request to deploy up to 40,000 American invasion troops. Turkey also wants billions in aid, loans and compensation. The US, keen to get Saddam at almost any cost and whatever the consequences for the Kurds, seems likely to agree.

Faced by a large-scale Turkish incursion (of possibly indefinite duration) in the wake of an American advance, Kurdish forces can be expected to fight.

A senior Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader, Barham Salah, made that much clear this week when he warned that Turkish intervention could encourage that of Iran. "The best thing the neighbours can do is stay out, as any country entering Iraq could draw in others," he said.

Yesterday, Kurdish separatists led by the jailed Abdullah Ocalan threatened to end their 1999 ceasefire and resume attacks inside Turkey.

For different reasons, Washington-sponsored Iraqi opposition groups who hope to govern a post-Saddam Iraq and who currently maintain an alliance of convenience with the Kurds will also resist any perceived threat to Iraq's territorial integrity, from whatever source. And as if this explosive mix
were not enough to give the US pause, all this assumes that Saddam's forces in the area either surrender or are swiftly destroyed.

These complex developments help clarify one issue at least. This week's furious Nato row was not about "defending" Turkey at all, as the US claims. As Turkey says, it is well able to protect itself. It was primarily about Washington's efforts to induce Nato to provide back-up for US and Turkish
forces invading Iraq. Seen in this light, the objections raised by France and others are entirely proper.